Puebla Investments on Hold as Companies Await USMCA Review Outcome

Major investment decisions in Puebla are being delayed as companies wait for greater certainty about the upcoming review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), which is expected to influence trade conditions starting in 2026. The lack of clarity over future rules is prompting firms to take a cautious approach, particularly in sectors closely tied to exports.

Business leaders say many companies are unwilling to move forward with large capital projects until they better understand how potential changes to the trade agreement could affect tariffs, regional content requirements, and market access to the United States and Canada. This uncertainty has slowed plans to expand plants, install new production lines, or commit to long-term supplier contracts.

The automotive and auto parts industries, which form the backbone of Puebla’s industrial economy, are among the most affected. While existing operations continue and no major shutdowns have been reported, new investments that were expected to strengthen local supply chains are being postponed rather than canceled.

Employers also warn that prolonged uncertainty could weaken the state’s competitiveness compared with other manufacturing hubs that are actively attracting nearshoring projects. Without clear trade rules, companies may choose to redirect new investments to locations where policy conditions are more predictable.

In addition to seeking clarity on the trade agreement, business groups are urging policies that encourage diversification into other industries and greater support for small and medium-sized suppliers, aiming to reduce heavy reliance on automotive manufacturing.

Until the direction of the USMCA review becomes clearer, business leaders expect investment activity in Puebla to remain restrained, with companies prioritizing operational stability over expansion despite continued demand in North American markets.