T-MEC Uncertainty Could Slow Mexico’s Aerospace Industry in 2026

Mexico’s aerospace industry could face slower growth in 2026 as uncertainty surrounding the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) begins to affect investment and expansion plans across the sector.

According to the Mexican Federation of the Aerospace Industry (FEMIA), the industry is expected to grow around 7% next year, below the annual average of 10% recorded in recent years. Industry leaders say ongoing uncertainty tied to trade negotiations and tariffs is creating a more cautious environment for companies operating in North America.

Mexico’s aerospace sector depends heavily on exports to the United States, which receives approximately 80% of the country’s aircraft components and aerospace parts. Most operations in Mexico focus on manufacturing specialized components that are later assembled in the U.S. and other international markets.

Industry representatives have warned that tariffs on metals and aluminum continue to impact competitiveness, especially for companies involved in aircraft manufacturing and maintenance supply chains. FEMIA has called for greater trade certainty during the USMCA review process and for the elimination of tariffs affecting aerospace materials within the three-country trade bloc.

Despite current concerns, the aerospace industry remains one of Mexico’s strongest advanced manufacturing sectors. States such as Querétaro, Sonora, Baja California and Chihuahua continue attracting investment from global aerospace firms involved in engines, aircraft components and maintenance services.

Executives in the sector believe the outcome of the USMCA review will play a major role in determining future investment flows and production expansion across North America. Industry organizations are expected to participate closely in consultations and advisory discussions during the negotiation process in order to protect regional supply chains and maintain Mexico’s competitiveness in aerospace manufacturing.