Mexico forecasts exports of US$730 billion, despite uncertainty

Although Mexico is on track to reach US$730 billion in exports by 2026, the private sector believes that the United States’ decision not to extend the USMCA for now creates a scenario of realistic certainty that keeps the agreement in effect but requires reducing uncertainty to sustain investment and growth in North America.

During a press conference, Sergio Contreras Perez, president of the Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment, and Technology (COMCE), estimated that Mexican exports will end 2026 on a strong note, driven by growth of between 22% and 23% in the first four months of the year.

Contreras emphasized that this figure is particularly significant because 92% of exports consist of manufactured goods, reflecting the degree of industrial integration Mexico has achieved with international markets—and, in particular, with North America.

However, this performance comes at a critical juncture for trade relations with the United States. Following the decision not to automatically renew the USMCA for another 16 years, the agreement will remain in effect at least until 2036 and will undergo periodic reviews while the three governments seek agreements on outstanding issues.