Revenue projected for 2027

Of every US$0.17 the federal government expects to collect next year, US$0.12 is already earmarked for unavoidable expenditures, ranging from public debt payments to pensions.

According to the 2027 Economic Policy Guidelines, the federal government projects that at least US$94.893 billion will be allocated to paying off the public debt—1.1% more than what was approved for the same purpose in the 2026 budget.

Revenue-sharing funds—which are resources freely available for state and municipal spending—will reach US$89.141 billion, a 2.5% increase, while arrears from prior fiscal years (ADEFA) will surge by 11.3% compared to the amount approved for the current year, reaching US$4.708 billion.

According to BBVA forecasts, next year, pensions will account for around 4.5% of GDP, which amounts to nearly US$103.974 billion.

The bank emphasized that after meeting these unavoidable obligations, only 32% of budget revenue remains available for discretionary spending, equivalent to 8% of GDP.

This means that the equivalent of 16% of GDP is already committed.

Last year, it reached 8% of the economy’s output, but in 2026 it was 11%, and Mexico is the country with the lowest tax revenue among members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.