Venezuela adds pressure to USMCA review

The review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), scheduled for this year, could take place in a more complex and uncertain environment due to recent events in Venezuela, warned Fitch Ratings.

According to its analysis, the tougher stance taken by the United States on the Venezuelan situation could spill over into the trade agreement negotiations, incorporating security issues and other non-trade matters. This situation could harden discussions between the three countries and broaden the review agenda beyond technical and economic aspects.

Fitch noted that although Mexico has intensified cooperation and security measures, such as the extradition of alleged members of criminal groups to the United States, these efforts would not be sufficient to dispel the risks surrounding the treaty review. In this context, the rating agency expects economic uncertainty to remain high during the process.

The firm also highlighted that the effects of the Venezuelan case transcend strictly commercial matters and are part of a more sensitive regional geopolitical environment, which could influence the priorities and positions of the governments involved. The combination of political, security, and economic factors could result in longer and more complex negotiations.

The review of the USMCA is considered a key moment in defining the stability and direction of trade relations in North America. However, the new international scenario poses additional challenges that could delay agreements and generate caution among investors and productive sectors.