Mexico Risks Losing US$45 Billion in Chinese Auto Investment
Mexico could miss out on billions of dollars in Chinese automotive investment as manufacturers reconsider where to establish new factories across North America, according to Guido Vildozo, a consultant at Mobility Global.
China’s automotive industry is expected to invest US$45 billion worldwide over the next decade to expand vehicle manufacturing, supplier networks, battery production, and charging infrastructure. Approximately US$30 billion is projected to go toward supply chains, with the remainder allocated to manufacturing facilities.
Speaking at the 2026 Automotive Forum organized by the Mexican Association of Automotive Dealers (AMDA), Vildozo warned that Chinese automakers are reassessing Mexico as a manufacturing destination following U.S. President Donald Trump’s expressed openness to Chinese vehicle production in the United States.
Investment decisions will depend on market demand, profit margins, import quotas, and trade policies. According to Vildozo, large-scale manufacturing facilities typically require a market capable of supporting annual production of approximately 250,000 vehicles.
Mexico’s lack of a long-term automotive industrial policy and uncertainty surrounding the USMCA review could further delay major Chinese investment projects. Meanwhile, Chinese automotive brands are expected to account for 30% of Mexico’s vehicle market by 2030, even without establishing additional domestic manufacturing plants.
Vildozo recommended that Mexico adopt a long-term industrial strategy similar to Brazil’s automotive programs, covering suppliers, financing, commercialization, and predictable tariff rules. Such a framework could help Mexico attract manufacturing investment while strengthening its domestic automotive supply chain.
