US Automotive Market Slows Down in October

No incentives for purchasing electric vehicles and rising prices due to tariffs caused car sales in the US market to slow down in October.

Estimates from analysis firms indicate that despite good results in the first nine months, this drop in sales during the last quarter is likely to result in a lower total volume than that recorded in 2024 as a whole.

Cox Automotive estimates indicate that 1.3 million units were sold in the tenth month of the year, a decrease of -3% compared to the previous year, although the figure also represents an increase of 2.7% compared to the previous month.

This difference, Cox analysts said, is due to the fact that October had three more business days than last September, but the same as October 2024.

In terms of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), the consulting firm estimated that it was 15.7 million units, down from 16.1 million last year and 16.4 million in September.

For its part, S&P Global Mobility estimated that October sales totaled 1.29 million units, which would translate into an estimated annual rate (SAAR) of 15.6 million units.

Among the companies that still report their figures on a monthly basis, Toyota posted the best results, achieving double-digit sales growth of 11.8% with sales of nearly 208,000 units, including those of its Lexus brand.

The Japanese automaker delivered more than 178,000 vehicles of its main brand, also growing 11.8%, while the nearly 30,000 units sold by the luxury division represented an 11.7% increase.

The automaker has benefited from focusing its offering on crossovers and SUVs to such an extent that 18 models in its catalog recorded increases in October, including the redesigned 4Runner, Grand Highlander, Tacoma, and Tundra.

Other companies reported increases in sales, but with modest results, as was the case with Ford, which recorded a 1.6% increase, derived from a 2.5% advance in its main brand, which was offset by a 13.4% drop in the Lincoln brand.

The blue oval brand sold more than 175,000 units in October for cumulative sales this year of 1.83 million units, representing a 6.6% increase over the same ten months of 2024.

A similar case is that of Honda, which reported a slight increase of 0.7% with the delivery of 111,000 vehicles, including those from its Acura division.

The Japanese company sold 100,000 units through its main brand and the rest through its luxury line, for increases of 0.5% and 2%, respectively.

The Tokyo-based company has already sold 1.2 million vehicles between January and October, which translates into an increase of 3.6%.

For South Korea's Kia and Hyundai, the party seems to be over after several consecutive months of record sales.

Although Kia achieved its best October result to date, with 60,000 units delivered, the figure represents an increase of just 0.1% over the same month last year.

Its subsidiary Hyundai, on the other hand, reported a 2% drop in sales due to a 2.3% decline in its main brand, but this was partially offset by a 1.7% increase in the Genesis luxury division.

Together, Kia and Hyundai have accumulated sales of almost 1.52 million units this year, representing a 9% increase compared to the January-October period in 2024.

Finally, of the companies that reported monthly sales for October, Mazda posted the worst results with a 32.6% drop in deliveries of just over 25,000 units.

With these figures, the Hiroshima-based automaker has accumulated deliveries of just under 345,000 units between January and October, representing a decline of 1.7% compared to the 2024 result.

Another Japanese automaker in decline is Subaru, which reported a 6.4% drop in sales in October, the third consecutive monthly decline, with deliveries of 53,000 units.

The company has sold 534,000 vehicles this year, which is 2.6% below the cumulative volume at this point in 2024.

Year-End Slump

“New vehicle sales were surprisingly strong this summer despite continued tariff uncertainty,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive.

However, the expert warned that as more tariffed products replace exempt inventory, prices rise, which will translate into a slowdown in sales for the rest of the year.

The analyst added that the expiration of tax incentives for electric vehicles will contribute to a slowdown in sales. “The outlook for electric vehicle sales will change dramatically from now on,” he said.

Chris Hopson, senior analyst at S&P Global Mobility, echoed this sentiment, predicting that demand for cars in the fourth quarter of 2025 will struggle to match the strong results of the previous year.

“The decline in electric vehicle volume, coupled with persistent affordability issues for new vehicles, will contribute to moderate growth for the rest of the year,” he said.

The consulting firm expects car sales in the U.S. market during the fourth quarter to be lower than the excellent results for the same period in 2024, with an estimated volume for the entire year 2025 of 16.1 million units.