Mexico Is Straying from Its Goal of Diversifying Exports
Mexico has fallen short of its 2025 export diversification goal, according to the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), which the federal government uses to measure key indicators. A high index indicates a highly concentrated and uncompetitive market, with Mexico’s score skyrocketing from 121.6 in 2024 to 194.0 in 2025, even though the target for 2025 was set at 117.5.
The result reflects a significant increase in Mexico’s global exports of a single product—“processing units”—which has led to a greater concentration in the index. The share of this subheading in the total rose from 4.1% to 10.7%. Processing units include CPUs (PC towers, servers, and industrial processors) that are imported as standalone units, without a monitor or keyboard; this excludes laptops, all-in-one computers, and accessories such as external hard drives or cards purchased separately.
The HHI is a key tool for calculating a country’s external competitiveness, providing a quantitative measure of whether its export basket is diversified or whether it faces vulnerability due to high economic dependence.
For senior management, this indicator addresses two crucial metrics: determining whether the exportable supply depends on a small number of goods and whether shipments are concentrated among a few trading partners or serve multiple global markets.
Of Mexico’s total product exports in 2025, those shipped to the U.S. market accounted for 83%, the same percentage as in 2024. Over time, this indicator generally showed an upward trend. In 2018, it stood at 79.5%. Looking ahead, the trend continues upward, as it reached 83.3% in the first half of 2026.
One of the main reasons Mexico has increased its exports to the U.S. market is the trade war between the United States and China, which has reduced China’s share of total U.S. imports, opening up opportunities for other countries, such as Mexico. Another explanation lies in the effects of the USMCA, which resulted from stricter rules of origin for certain goods.
