Fitch’s Analysis of the 2027 Economic Package

The rating agency Fitch has warned that the target for the broad fiscal deficit—3.9% of GDP—proposed by the Mexican government for next year is less ambitious than the one set in April in the preliminary economic policy guidelines, raising doubts about the feasibility of curbing the rise in debt as a proportion of GDP.

In an analysis, they have predicted that “the proposal includes some positive changes for the credit profile, such as more realistic macroeconomic assumptions.” They specifically referred to the forecast of 2% real GDP growth, which is the midpoint of the range estimated between 1.5% and 2.5%. “This projection is largely in line with private-sector expectations and with Fitch’s estimate of 1.8%,” they noted.

In the analysis titled “Mexico’s 2027 Budget Is More Credible, but Medium-Term Risks Persist,” the authors emphasize that by using a more realistic GDP assumption, “the risks of fiscal deviations should be reduced—though not eliminated.”

Todd Martinez, senior director and co-head of sovereign ratings for Latin America at Fitch, explains that the proposal aims to achieve consolidation through measures that would increase revenue rather than further spending cuts. According to Fitch, this approach “has already reached its practical limit.”

“Operating expenses have increased in 2026, while further reductions in capital expenditures—which were already low—have reflected implementation challenges rather than public policy intentions.”