Mexico’s Economic Growth Outlook Improves for 2026
Domestic economic activity has shown clear signs of acceleration in the second half of the year, driven primarily by resilient domestic consumption, increased activity in the services sector, and a rebound in wholesale trade, according to the latest economic analysis by CIAL Dun & Bradstreet, a leading provider of advanced data analytics.
This performance has prompted an upward revision of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecasts for year-end, exceeding initial market expectations. However, domestic momentum is unfolding against a complex external backdrop characterized by rising international energy prices, persistent inflationary pressures in consumer services, and significant exchange-rate volatility amid monetary policy decisions in the United States.
Recent indicators point to a shift in the pace of economic growth. According to the Global Economic Activity Indicator (IGAE), economic activity grew by 3.5% year-over-year in August, marking its highest growth rate since September 2023. As a result, cumulative growth for the first eight months of the year reached 1.7%, prompting analysts to raise their 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.9%, above the 1.4% projected by market analysts in private-sector surveys.
The services sector has emerged as a key driver of economic activity, growing by 2.2% from January through August. Wholesale trade made a notable contribution, expanding by 8.1% and reinforcing its position as the second-largest economic sector after manufacturing. In contrast, growth remained more subdued in the primary sector, at 1.0%, and the industrial sector, at 0.8%.
Based on the Timely Economic Activity Indicator (IOAE) published by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), economic activity is projected to grow by 3.7% year-over-year in September, which would mark its strongest performance in twelve months. Incorporating this estimate alongside the observed data for July and August, the Mexican economy is projected to expand by 3.4% year-over-year in the third quarter.
These estimates further support the upward revision of the 2026 growth forecast and point to continued momentum into 2027, when GDP growth is projected to reach 2.4%, significantly above the 1.8% expected by the market.
Overall, the indicators point to a moderate acceleration in the Mexican economy toward the end of 2026, with projected GDP growth of 1.9% for the full year and 2.4% in 2027. This outlook is supported by public spending and continued domestic demand. Nevertheless, the expected improvement in economic performance will also bring operational challenges for businesses and the industrial sector.
