PCR Verum releases its report on the performance of Mexican airlines

Airline profitability will remain limited for the rest of the year, and any gradual recovery will depend on the moderation in fuel prices anticipated by futures contracts, according to PCR Verum, the domestic market’s securities rating agency.

According to the report prepared by this rating agency, titled “Challenging Environment Weighs on Mexican Airlines’ Performance; Financial Stability Remains Strong,” the key factors to monitor are the trajectory of oil prices and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Also of concern is the airlines’ ability to maintain fares without eroding demand, which is now showing signs of caution; and the stability of the Mexican peso, which is trading at a level below the assumptions generally used. In addition, the pace at which aircraft affected by the P&W inspections are being returned to service and pending deliveries from Boeing are taken into account.

According to PCR Verum analysts Jonathan Félix Gaxiola, Luis Mauricio Quintero Padilla, and Daniel Martínez Flores, 2026 has presented a challenging environment for Mexican airlines, primarily due to pressures on their cost structure.

In addition to the rise in jet fuel prices—which increased by 70% and 80% annually during the second quarter of the year amid tensions in the Middle East—the airline sector is facing a context of limited economic growth and divergent performance between the domestic and international markets.

Consequently, the sector’s three publicly traded companies (Grupo Aeroméxico, Volaris, and Viva Aerobus) have reported declines in EBITDA and cumulative net losses totaling approximately US$389 million in the first six months of 2026, despite having achieved record revenues driven by higher fares.

However, on a positive note, companies’ leverage ratios (Net Debt/EBITDA) remain relatively under control. In just the first six months of the year, scheduled air travel carried 60.6 million passengers, with 30.7 million domestic flights and 29.8 million international flights. Although the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which was anticipated to be a catalyst for traffic, yielded fewer benefits than expected.

According to PCR Verum, the factors to monitor for the remainder of the year will be the trajectory of oil prices, the ability to pass on costs to fares without affecting demand, fleet availability, and exchange rate trends.