The Mexican economy could be affected in 2027

The 2027 Economic Package forecasts that the Mexican economy will grow between 1.5% and 2.5% next year, driven primarily by household consumption, improved financing conditions, increased investment, and strong export performance.

The Ministry of Finance emphasizes that growth in labor income and employment could continue to support consumption, while lower borrowing costs could encourage purchases of durable goods and corporate investment decisions. Added to this are infrastructure projects, incentives under the Plan Mexico, and trade with North America.

However, the scenario outlined by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) is not without risks. The 2027 General Economic Policy Guidelines highlight several factors that could undermine its forecasts for next year.

The growth scenario projected by the Ministry of Finance could be affected by external and internal factors; for example, the ministry has identified seven risks that could cause the economy's performance to fall short of expectations for 2027.

Escalating geopolitical tensions, new tariffs and trade barriers, as well as deteriorating global financial conditions, are some of the factors that could affect economic performance.

However, it is not all bad news, as the Ministry of Finance has also highlighted factors that could boost the economic outlook, such as increased investment in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure, reduced political tensions, a more dynamic U.S. economy, progress in North American trade relations, more favorable financial conditions, as well as greater certainty and faster implementation of investments.