Banxico reports economic downfall in northern Mexico

The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) reported that economic activity in the northern region of the country fell 1% during the first quarter of 2026 compared to the end of 2025, leading to estimates that the recession could continue in Baja California.

In its report on Regional Economies for the January–March 2026 period, Banxico noted that the states along the border experienced serious impacts, setting off alarm bells in Baja California as the situation is expected to continue in this manner throughout the coming year.

In the central bank’s report for the first quarter of the year, it warns that in the north (Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Nuevo Leon, Coahuila, and Tamaulipas), the decline appears to have been associated with weakness in certain service sector activities, including tourism. Additionally, the decline in manufacturing and construction appears to have played a role.