GDP will be 2% if the USMCA is extended

Citi, the multinational financial services and investment banking firm, has warned—through its head of operations for Mexico, Julio Ruiz—that the Mexican economy would grow by 2% in the coming period if the United States, Mexico, and Canada manage to extend their trade agreement for another 16 years.

It has been noted that, in the absence of that factor—and given the visible progress in implementing the Infrastructure Plan—the risk to GDP in light of the aforementioned situation will be on the downside.

The minister also spoke about the growth of Mexican exports, which continue to depend on how the country’s northern neighbor performs. The expectation that has been shared is for economic growth, which, according to estimates, would reach 1.8%, making it more efficient to continue attracting exports from Mexico.

However, it has also been pointed out that these exports are concentrated in machinery and computer equipment—sectors that do not represent a significant source of added value for Mexican manufacturing—which could limit the impact of the increase.

During this period, growth of 1.3% was reported, reflecting an upward revision from the previously forecast 1.1%. Citi’s Latin America economist, Felipe Juncal, predicted that other market analysts might also adopt this upward revision.

Economist Julio Ruiz also noted that economic performance in the second quarter is seen as a positive factor that drove growth following the second quarter. Finally, it has been clarified that preliminary data for what would be the third quarter—such as the consumer confidence survey and unemployment figures—have provided indications of a sustained acceleration.