Private consumption in Mexico is slowing

Private consumption showed moderate growth during the first quarter of 2026, according to data from INEGI. Using the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP), INEGI estimated a 0.2% increase in February compared to the previous month; while for March, it forecasts a monthly stagnation—that is, no change from February.

Meanwhile, the IOCP forecasts an annual increase of 2.1% for both February and March, well below the previous projection of 3.3%.

Private consumption in Mexico—the broadest measure of what people consume—fell 16% month-over-month in January 2026 and saw its annual growth rate moderate to 2.7% in the first month of the year.

According to BBVA Mexico’s economic research department, private spending in February was affected by disruptions to economic activity resulting from episodes of violence and blockades recorded in the country during the month, particularly in the Bajio-West region. It anticipated a gradual normalization of private spending in March, given the recovery in consumption following the disruptions and interruptions to activity in the second month of the year.